Several incumbent African governments suffered sweeping defeats in elections in 2024, including in Senegal, Ghana and Mauritius
The sweeping defeats of several incumbent African governments in this year’s general elections signal significant political shifts and have sparked intense discussions about the future of governance and democracy on the continent.
Analysts believe the new faces now in the corridors of power have the opportunity to reset the policies and strategies of their various countries, but remain cautious about the prospect of immediate tangible shifts.
Jenerali Ulimwengu, a Tanzania-based political and social commentator, pointed out that one of Africa’s major challenges is that it faces problems and crises that are beyond the control of individual governments.
“I don’t expect much to change because the conditions created by current global situations cannot necessarily be controlled from within,” he told Anadolu.
“But there are also perennial issues such as corruption, inefficient governance, and lack of will to deliver basic services like water, power, and transportation. These are issues that voters are sensitive to, and they will punish those in power if they don’t deliver.”
Ulimwengu also expressed skepticism about whether new administrations would break the cycle of poor governance.
“Those coming to power always say the same things: that the outgoing government was corrupt, inefficient, or nepotistic. But a few years down the road, you discover that the newcomers are just as bad,” he said.
Where ruling parties lost
Winds of change started blowing across Africa this March, when Senegal witnessed a historic moment with the election of Bassirou Diomaye Faye, the main opposition candidate.
Fresh out of prison, Faye secured a decisive victory, defeating the government’s candidate, Amadou Ba, and the election was widely celebrated as a resurgence of democracy in the West African nation.
Governments in Ghana, Botswana, and Mauritius joined Senegal in facing significant defeats.
In Ghana, opposition leader and former President John Mahama defeated Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia in the Dec. 7 election, highlighting voter frustration with the incumbent administration’s handling of economic challenges.
In Botswana, Duma Boko emerged victorious in the Oct. 30 election amid widespread economic discontent. Boko, running under the Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) party, defeated President Mokgweetsi Masisi of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), which had maintained power for over five decades.
Boko’s promises of change, employment, and government stipends resonated with voters seeking relief from economic hardships.
Similarly, Mauritius saw the Alliance Lepep coalition, led by then-Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth of the Militant Socialist Movement, suffer a crushing defeat in November.
The ruling party secured only 27% of the vote, equivalent to a mere two seats in parliament, a dramatic decline from the 42 seats it won in 2019.
The opposition Alliance of Change, led by former doctor Navin Ramgoolam, claimed 60 of the 66 parliamentary seats, propelling Ramgoolam to the position of prime minister.
Meanwhile, in South Africa, the ruling African National Congress (ANC) retained power but saw its vote share dip below 50% for the first time since 1994. President Cyril Ramaphosa was forced into coalition talks, resulting in 12 Cabinet posts being allocated to other parties.
Explaining the wave of change
Frederic Golooba-Mutebi, a Kigali and Kampala-based political researcher and commentator, observed a striking trend: sitting governments in countries without a history of violent autocracy or political instability were ousted or severely weakened.
“One common distinction is that, with the exception of Rwanda and Chad, incumbent governments lost to opposition parties or faced strong challenges from them,” he told Anadolu.
Ulimwengu attributed the changing tide to several factors, including economic hardships, corruption, poor service delivery, and nepotism.
“There are so many issues that rulers, those who are in power, have to answer to their people, but they have not been able to do so,” Ulimwengu explained.
“If you look at the majority of the countries in Africa, they are performing very poorly. Some of the economic problems are not necessarily of their own making, but they seem clueless about what should be done. So, they are necessarily going to answer at the polls.”
In Ghana and Mauritius, rising costs of living and major economic challenges fueled voter discontent.
Ghana’s significant debt burden affected service delivery, becoming a key campaign issue for the opposition. In Botswana, Mauritius, and Senegal, corruption scandals further eroded public trust in the ruling parties.
“When the polls come around, incumbents are going to be asked questions by the electorate,” Ulimwengu added.
“If they don’t have answers, they lose. Not that those who come into power have a better understanding of the problems or solutions, but for now, the incumbents are held responsible, and the electorate throws them out.”
Implications for Africa’s geopolitics
The election outcomes also raise questions about the continent’s geopolitical direction.
While analysts say it is too early to predict how the new leaders will act in the global arena, there is a growing expectation for a break from the influence of former colonial powers and exploitative agreements.
Faye’s victory in Senegal exemplifies this sentiment, as he pledged to restore Senegal’s sovereignty, reform its currency, and abolish the CFA franc, a currency controlled by the French treasury and pegged to the euro.
“Tearing away from traditional ways African countries relate to foreign powers that have long exploited and destabilized the continent is a common goal among some of these new leaders,” said Golooba-Mutebi.
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